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Volume 52, July/August 2017, Number 4 · pp. 247-250


Welcome to the Club – On the Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for China

Ullrich Heilemann

Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP forecasts by three international forecasters and two German forecasters over the period 1991-2015. While forecasters had considerable difficulties in tracking the large upswings in China in the 1990s and early 2000s, they were quite accurate for the period 2004-2015, particularly when comparing the IMF’s forecasts for China with its forecasts for the United States or Germany. The forecast accuracy found in the Chinese Five-Year Plans is also surprisingly high.


This Intereconomics article is available for free at this page after an embargo period of two years. Reading it before August 2019 is possible via SpringerLink or in the next library.